Service Plays Friday 10/1/10

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Pointwise

BYU over Utah State RATING: 5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Playbook

3* BEST BET BYU over UTAH ST by 14

BYU disappointed us last week in their home loss to Nevada but we’ll show the Mormons ‘Big Love’ for at least another week as HC Bronco Mendenhall looks to rebound from his first-ever three game losing streak. The six-year head coach is now married to freshman QB Jake Heaps with junior signal-caller Riley Nelson lost for the season with a shoulder injury. If this 6-point road-favorite role has you concerned, it shouldn’t: Mendenhall’s pre-nup points out the fact that he is 16-0 SU and 12-4 ATS versus a foe off back-to-back SU losses. There is also value aplenty in this contest. Since Utah State became a lined-team in 1999, the Cougars have never been favored by less than 17 points in this series. In fact, the last time BYU arrived in Logan two short years ago, they were installed as a healthy 29-point choice. We’d lose our liquor license if we didn’t recommend laying less than a touchdown with a bunch of Mormons who have won 22 of 24 SU in this series, including 20 of the last 21 and 10 straight. We’re not sure if Bronco’s boys will be playing in the Las Vegas Bowl for the fifth time in six years, but we are certain that our TUMBLIN’ DICE article on page two is just the tonic these Mormons need. We’ll drink to that – even if these Provo polygamists won’t. Lay the more than reasonable number under the Friday Night Lights.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CFL DUNKEL

Week 14

Montreal at Calgary
The Alouettes look to build on their 7-1 ATS record in their last 8 games as a road underdog. Montreal is the pick (+3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has Calgary favored by only 1. Dunkel Pick: Montreal (+3 1/2). Here are all of this week's CFL picks.

FRIDAY, OCTOBER 1

Game 281-282: Montreal at Calgary (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 118.099; Calgary 119.031
Dunkel Line: Calgary by 1; 59
Vegas Line: Calgary by 3 1/2; 56 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Montreal (+3 1/2); Over

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF DUNKEL INDEX

FRIDAY, OCTOBER 1

Game 103-104: BYU at Utah State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: BYU 86.684; Utah State 82.173
Dunkel Line: BYU by 4 1/2; 56
Vegas Line: BYU by 6; 50 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Utah State (+6); Over

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Marc Lawrence

3 UNIT Brigham Young -5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

BYU vs. Utah State Preview & Pick

BYU Cougars at Utah State Aggies (+4.5, 51.5)
Week 5: BYU vs. Utah State Preview & Odds
Date: Friday, Oct. 1, 8:00 p.m. ET
Venue: Romney Stadium, Logan, UT
Broadcast: ESPN
Cougars vs. Aggies lines from Bodog.com
Cougars: -6
Aggies: +6
Total: N/A


Two struggling teams will go head to head on Friday when the BYU Cougars visit the Utah State Aggies. BYU is a six-point favorite despite hitting the road.

BYU (1-3) has to be relieved to be facing Utah State after getting dealt a pretty tough opening schedule with Washington, at Air Force, at Florida State and Nevada. The Cougars dropped the last three games both straight up and against the spread. Perhaps BYU needs some big change to reverse its fortunes, and it’ll get it in the form of a new starting quarterback.

Riley Nelson has been shut down with a shoulder injury, giving the job to freshman Jake Heaps.

He started in last week’s 27-13 loss to Nevada, completing 24 of his 45 passes for 229 yards and no touchdowns or interceptions. The Cougars did a solid job moving the ball, but they couldn’t capitalize; despite crossing Nevada’s 25-yard line on five occasions, they mustered just six points out of those opportunities.

The Cougars were carved up on the ground by Nevada, which rushed for 229 yards and two scores. Still, they limited Nevada’s high-powered attack to just three points in the second half, which is at least something to hang their hats on.

Utah State (1-3, 1-2 ATS), meanwhile, is trying to cope with an onslaught of injuries—eight starters have already been bitten by the injury bug, and it certainly showed in last week’s 41-7 loss to San Diego State.

It was a terribly disappointing result, especially since the Aggies hung with Oklahoma in their season-opening loss.

The Aggies struggled on both sides of the ball last week. The defense has been bad all year, and it proved why against San Diego State, allowing touchdowns on the Aztecs’ first three possessions. Utah State is desperate for a bigger pass rush after failing to sack San Diego State quarterback Ryan Lindley; he threw for 362 yards and three touchdowns.

Offensively, Utah State is having a very difficult time throwing the football. Diondre Borel completed just 14 of his 31 passes last weekend and he was sacked four times. Supposedly a dual threat, Borel couldn’t get it going on the ground, either.

He carried 18 times for just five yards.

Both teams are playing poorly, but Utah State is just too ravaged by injuries.

The Aggies have struggled to stop the pass, and Heaps might be exactly what the doctor ordered for BYU; he at least showed some flashes last week.

Gambling Trends:

BYU is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
BYU is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
BYU is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Utah State is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games at home
BYU (1 – 3) at UTAH ST (1 – 3)

Pick: BYU Cougars -6

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

BYU at Utah State: What Bettors Need To Know

BYU Cougars at Utah State Aggies (+4.5, 51.5)

It’s Big Love in the state of Utah with the BYU Cougars taking on the Utah State Aggies Friday night. Don't let their combined 2-6 records turn you off, both teams have played tough schedules and face a critical must-win situation on national TV.

And let's not forget that the winner of this instate rivalry gets “The Old Wagon Wheel”

Why BYU Will Cover

The Cougars are on a three-game losing streak, however, those teams (Air Force, Florida State, and Nevada) have a combined record of 10-2. After going through such a tough gauntlet, Utah State provides a bit of drop off in talent. The added motivation of this being a game on ESPN and a “must win” will ensure that BYU will bring its A-game.

Quarterback Jake Heaps will also be a key factor and could have a breakthrough game Friday night. The true freshman was a five-star QB in high school and he is already showing upperclassmen maturity by putting last week's loss on his shoulders.

"The only finger you can point is at me,” Heaps told the media. “I had opportunities and plays I could make and throws I just didn’t make. Offensively we battled and made some great plays. We drove the field and had our way with the defense but just couldn’t finish."

On the defensive side, BYU proved in the Nevada game that it can handle someone like Utah State QB Diondre Borel. The Cougars stop unit managed to keep fleet-footed QB Colin Kaepernick to under 100 yards in rushing and held the country’s fourth-ranked offense to their lowest point total of the season.

History is also on the Cougars’ side with BYU riding a 10-game winning streak in this series.

Why Utah State Will Cover

The Aggies are coming off of two poor performances in which they seemed to lack motivation and focus. Last week against San Diego State, they gave up 21 points in the first quarter which set the tone for the rest of the game.

So with all this negativity why will Utah State cover? Well, it seems like this is a team that will play its best when under the spotlight. Utah State proved it against Oklahoma in its season opener. As 34-point road underdogs, the Aggies nearly beat the Sooners straight up, losing 31-24. Diondre Borel was a key factor in that game throwing for 341 yards and two TDs.

This is the second time in two years that ESPN will be visiting Logan, Utah (the first being last year's game against Boise) and backers can expect to see more of the team that played in Norman rather than the one they have watched in the last two weeks.

Despite losing 10 straight games against BYU, Utah State kept the game close last year and was trailing just 21-17 in the fourth quarter. It’s the last year for Borel and several other starters and they will be aiming to impress against their instate rivals.

Notes And Trends

The line opened up at -6.5 in favor of BYU but it has now moved to -4.5 at most books, despite the fact that popular opinion is on the Cougars. Utah State is 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight games in this series. However, this is the lowest line on record in this series. In the last three years, BYU has been favored by an average of 25 points.

The total sits at 51.5 and has seen only slight movement. All four BYU games have gone under the total this year. The under has also hit for three straight years in this series

The forecast calls for partly cloudy skies by kickoff with lows in the 40s.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Friday's Streaking And Slumping Starting Pitchers

Streakers

Mark Rogers, Milwaukee Brewers (0-0, 0.00 ERA)

No relation to Kenny, but you might have to be a bit of a gambler to roll the dice with Mark.

The right-hander has pitched a meager five innings since the Brewers called him up in the middle of September, but he has been pretty dominant in the spot duty. He has yet to allow a hit in three appearances against the Marlins, Astros and Cubs.

In his most recent outing, a 6-2 win over the Marlins, he was on a sixty-pitch limit, but struck out four and walked just two over three shutout innings. He likely will have a similar limit on Friday, but should have a longer leash.

Jered Weaver, Los Angeles Angels (13-12, 3.02 ERA)

The 27-year-old right-hander has given his team a chance to win each of his past six outings.

Weaver, who ranks second in the American League in strikeouts (229), third in WHIP (1.08), fourth in innings pitched (217.1) and fifth in ERA. The past six times he has taken the mound he has allowed only 11 earned runs over 43.1 innings. Over that span he also has given up 34 hits but no home runs and walked a meager six batters.

"I think right now he's throwing the ball better than any time we've seen him," Angels manager Mike Scioscia told the Associated Press. "He's really putting pitches together better than he ever has. He's executing them better."

Slumping

Jeremy Guthrie, Baltimore Orioles (10-14, 3.98 ERA)

The right-hander has struggled each of the past two times he took the bump.

The ace of the Orioles staff has given up 10 earned runs over 11.1 innings in consecutive losses to the Blue Jays and Yankees, including 14 hits and four home runs over that span.

In the defeat to the Blue Jays, he used the weak excuse of an afternoon breeze for his woes.

"You know what, it was crazy," Guthrie told the Associated Press. "I was not comfortable on the mound with how hard it was blowing in my face. It was blowing hard enough to the point where I felt like it would even take some of my pitches and push against them."

James Shields, Tampa Bay Rays (13-14, 5.04 ERA)

The right-hander couldn’t have been much worse in September.

Last month he was 0-3 with a 7.00 ERA and a staggering 1.67 WHIP. In his past two starts, losses to the Marines and Yankees, he gave up 10 earned runs over 11.1 innings. The reason for his horrible outings was the fact that he yielded 10 hits, including two home runs, over that span.

"First inning, I made two or three bad pitches," Shields told the Associated Press of his loss to the Yankees. "You let five runs in the first inning, that's definitely not doing my job. With this team, you definitely can't do that."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

HOT LINES

Friday's Best MLB Bets

Cleveland Indians at Chicago White Sox (-106, 8.5)

The Tribe are sprinting towards the finish this month.

Cleveland has won six of its past seven thanks to a streaking pitching staff of young hurlers that continues to develop. The Indians staff has a sparkling ERA of 2.43, picking up three saves and striking out 44 against just 19 walks during that span. Just as impressive, opponents are hitting a meager .244 against the Indians over that stretch.

"Everybody wants to win," Indians manager Manny Acta told the Associated Press. "I don't enjoy losing. We all have to understand what our job is. I want to win every single day. Every year I managed, I've had to prove everybody wrong with rebuilding ballclubs."

The team also has been raking during that stretch, batting .283 with eight home runs and 19 doubles the past week. Cleveland also is averaging five runs per game over that span.

And just because the White Sox have a better record, it doesn’t mean the Pale Hose have dominated the Tribe. Cleveland has won eight of the team’s 15 meetings so far this year.

Pick: Cleveland Indians


Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves (-160, 8.5)

So how much do the Phillies care about this game? Well, considering the team has locked up homefield throughout the playoffs, they have elected to let pitcher Kyle Kendrick take the bump against the Braves.

Not only is Kendrick just 10-10 with a 4.76 ERA, but he has totally fallen apart the past month. He has gotten shelled in his four September outings, giving up 13 runs over 24 innings as opponents are hitting .279 against him.

This is great news for Atlanta, which needs a win to keep just ahead of San Diego in the race for the National League Wild Card. Meantime, the Phillies also are likely to rest starters Jayson Werth, Raul Ibanez and Placido Polanco this weekend as the team prepares to defend its consecutive NL titles.

Also, plate appearances have been rare for bench players Ross Gload, Domonic Brown, Ben Francisco, Mike Sweeney and Brian Schneider down the stretch.

Expect that to change in Atlanta.

And for the home team to take advantage.

Pick: Atlanta Braves

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bettors' Best Friend (BBF): Friday's Wagering Tips

Lines To Watch

Brigham Young opened as a 6.5-point favorite against Utah State but has since seen the line fall to just a four-point edge.

Weather To Watch

Indians at White Sox: There is an expected 12 mph blowing from out toward left center.

Tigers at Orioles: There is a 15 mph wind blowing toward center field.

Yankees at Red Sox: There is a 70 percent chance of rain with a 12 mph wind blowing toward left field.

Nationals at Mets: There is a 40 percent chance of rain with a 15 mph wind blowing toward left field.

Padres at Giant: There is an expected 11 mph wind blowing toward center field.

Who’s Hot

The Reds are 13-5 in their past 18 home games.

The over is 6-1-1 in the Pirates past eight games.

The Cubs are 16-5 in their past 21 road games.

The over is 11-4 in the Rockies past 15 games.

Who’s Not

The Blue Jays are 4-10 in their past 14 road games

The under is 17-8 in the Indians past 25 games.

The Diamondbacks are 15-41 in their past 56 road games.

Key Stat

16: Road wins this season for Pittsburgh. The Pirates are 16-62 on the road this year and must win once in their final three away tilts – all in Miami against the Marlins – to avoid the infamy of becoming the first team to win fewer than 17 road games with a 162-game format.

Injury That Shouldn’t Be Overlooked

Texans receiver Andre Johnson’s ankle is worse than ever. Held to just four catches for 64 yards in a loss against the Cowboys last week, Johnson was kept out of practice on Thursday and did only a little light running. He expects to play, but also facing Raiders stud corner Nnamdi Asomugha makes Texans coach Gary Kubiak hesitant at best. "To say that he's a 'no,' I don't see it that way. I think that he's going to be a game-time decision,” Kubiak told HoustonTexans.com. “Obviously, he's sorer than he is now than he was last week at this time or would've taken in some of the practice. He did run some. It's not like he didn't do anything.”

Game Of The Day

BYU Cougars at Utah State Aggies (+4.5, 51.5)

Notable Quotes

“We all know that especially in New York, once the media and the perception becomes a reality, you start fighting against it. And when you are fighting against something that is not necessarily real, you make it real.” – Former New York Giant running back Tiki Barber on the perception that New York coach Tom Coughlin is losing his squad.

Tips And Notes

The Rangers are ready to welcome back slugger Josh Hamilton. After taking 60 swings on Thursday -- 40 on soft toss and 20 in batting practice -- he participated in some long toss in the outfield and expects to play all three games this weekend against the Angels. However, the team expects to miss outfielder David Murphy, who likely will miss the rest of the regular season with a left groin strain. "I'm fired up," Hamilton told MLB.com. "I felt like this was a reasonable goal, especially after getting the (anti-inflammatory) injections (10 days ago) and I started feeling better a couple of days after I had them. It's not normal to come back this quick as far as conditioning and stuff like that. You would like to stretch it out a little more. But the circumstances are a little different."

And while the Rangers will be making lineup changes, it will be well into October until the Minnesota Twins expect back slugger Justin Morneau. The Canadian has been sidelined much of the year with a concussion and the former American League MVP could certainly give the team’s lineup another dangerous bat. However, the team expects him back for the American League Championship Series at the earliest if Minnesota advances past the first round. Morneau was hitting .345 with 18 home runs and 56 RBIs before taking a knee to the head on July 7 that sidelined him. "Everybody knows it would be great if this guy could help us one way or another," manager Ron Gardenhire told MLB.com. "But he's been out a long time. It's exciting that he's actually feeling good. That's all we wanted. It's not about the baseball part of it. Let's get him out on the baseball field and go from there. No expectations. There's no sense in going any further than that."

Virginia Tech will be without stud running back Ryan Williams for a second-straight game when the team plays at No. 23 North Carolina State on Saturday. The Wolfpack are one of the biggest surprises in the country behind quarterback Russell Wilson, who has 11 passing touchdowns and another rushing to lead NC State to a 4-0 start. Without Williams, the Hokies will be hard-pressed to score with the Wolfpack if the game devolves into a shootout.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

OUTLAW SPORTS ADVISORS

$200* F5 INNINGS* SF Giants -160 ML

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

The Joker's Bet of the Day:

Back Over 2.5 Goals at 1.53 in Sparta Rotterdam v Volendam

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty pushed with Texas A&M (+3) Thursday night.

Friday it's BYU. The deficit is 20 sirignanos.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Hondo

Hondo hit with the Cubs last night, but was denied a sweep when he pushed with Ok. State because of some shoddy clock management by Cowboys coach Mike Gundy. So the number on the big red toteboard was trimmed to 2,535 alous.

Tonight, he'll go with the Cougars to have their way with the young Aggies -- 10 units on BYU over Utah State. Also, Cain looks able, willing and ready to stop the Pods -- 10 units on the Giants.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Arthur Ralph Sports
523 - 381 run 58 %

Bonus Play FRI Phillies + 155

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Gamblers Data

Friday Giants -170

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Friday, October 1

Hot pitchers
-- Maholm is 2-0, 1.93 in his last couple starts.
-- Astros are 10-2 in last dozen Norris starts. Coleman is 2-1, 3.32 in his last three starts.
-- Rogers threw three hitless innings (56 PT) in his first '10 start; he was 6-8, 3.65 in 25 minor league starts (24 at AA; opponents hit .210).
-- Giants won Cain's last seven starts (3-0, 0.82 in last three).

-- Tigers won last six Porcello starts (5-0, 2.98).
-- Weaver has a 2.49 RA in his last six starts. Hunter is 1-1, 2.33 in his last three starts.
-- Carmona has a 1.82 RA in his last five starts. White Sox won both Pena starts (1-0, 4.85).
-- Chen is 2-0, 2.55 in his last four starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Misch is 0-4, 6.66 in five starts this season. Zimmerman is 1-2, 8.40 in his last four starts.
-- Mendez is 0-2, 6.08 in his last three starts.
-- Kendrick is 2-5, 4.88 in his last eight starts. Beachy is 0-1, 4.82 in his first two starts.
-- Reds lost last four Wood starts (0-2, 4.70).
-- Westbrook is 2-4, 4.47 in his last eight starts. de la Rosa is 1-2, 4.87 in his last three starts.
-- Kroenke became a starter late in year at AAA; was 5-0, 1.70 in his last seven AAA starts; he allowed four runs in his first 1.2 IP in majors. Ely is 0-4, 10.89 in his last five starts.
-- Richard is 1-5, 5.15 in his last six starts.

-- Tillman is 0-3, 7.50 in his last five starts. Guthrie is 0-1, 7.94 in his last couple starts. Bonderman is 0-0, 8.59 in his last three starts.
-- Matsuzaka is 0-2, 6.93 in his last four starts. Pettitte is 0-1, 8.49 in his last three starts.
-- Shields is 0-3, 7.33 in his last five starts.
-- Pavano is 2-4, 5.87 in his last seven starts. Romero is 1-1, 7.20 in his last three outings.
-- Cahill is 1-2, 7.94 in his last three starts. French is 1-2, 5.55 in his last four starts.

Totals
-- Last five Washington games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 7-1-1 in last nine Pittsburgh games.
-- Under is 5-2 in last seven Milwaukee games.
-- Last five Atlanta games stayed under the total.
-- Five of last seven Houston games went over the total. Last four Cub games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 6-2 in last eight de la Rosa starts.
-- Five of last six Arizona games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 10-1 in last eleven San Diego games.

-- Three of last four Tillman home starts stayed under the total. Over is 7-2-1 in last ten Porcello starts.
-- Six of last eight Matsuzaka starts went over the total.
-- Under is 16-1-1 in last 18 Weaver starts. Over is 7-2 in Hunter's last nine starts.
-- Six of last seven Carmona starts stayed under the total.
-- Over is 4-1 in last five Shields road starts.
-- Over is 8-2-1 in last eleven Romero starts.
-- Last three Cahill starts went over the total. Under is 6-2-1 in last nine French starts.

Hot Teams
-- Washington won six of its last nine games.
-- Brewers won eight of their last ten games. Reds won three of their last four games.
-- Phillies are 13-3 in their last 16 games. Braves won four of their last five games.
-- Cubs are 13-6 in their last 19 games.
-- Cardinals won six of their last eight games.
-- Dodgers won five of their last seven games.
-- Giants won eight of their last ten games.

-- Rangers won five of their last seven games.
-- Blue Jays won 10 of their last 13 games.
-- Royals won four of their last five home games.
-- Indians won last six games, allowing 13 runs. White Sox won seven of their last eight games.
-- Angels won three of their last four games.

Cold Teams
-- Mets lost nine of their last twelve games.
-- Pirates lost three of their last four games. Marlins lost six of their last eight games.
-- Astros lost seven of their last nine games.
-- Rockies lost 10 of their last 11 games.
-- Arizona lost last three games, scoring four runs.
-- Padres lost four of their last five games.

-- Bronx lost six of its last eight games.
-- Twins lost six of their last seven games.
-- Orioles lost five of their last seven games. Tigers lost their last three games, scoring a total of six runs.
-- Tampa Bay lost four of its last five games.
-- Red Sox lost four of their last five games.
-- Oakland lost seven of its last nine games. Seattle lost five of its last seven home games.

 

[RobertMichael]

HRC NCAA PREMIUM-Sunday, October 1st
Capper: Robcat (Handicappers Paradise)

========================
2* Action (non-rated)
5* Selection
8* Premium
10* Premium
15* Diamond
*******************************
Selections:
[103] BYU |8*|-3.5|B+0|ESPN8:00 pm EST

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

TOTALS 4 U

TOP PLAY
BYU UNDER 51-

REGULAR PLAYS
NY Mets OVER 8
Cincinnati OVER 8-
Oakland UNDER 6-
SD Padres UNDER 6-